Category Archives: Industrial internet

These are the key topics in energy says Chair 8th Smart Grids Cleanpower 19-20 June Cambridge

Embargoed until 15/05/2017 C4IR

Gavin Jones, a seasoned smart grids forum founder and chair of ARM-sponsored 8th international annual Smart Grids Cleanpower 19-20 June in Cambridge UK, has outlined key themes for this year’s summit at Robinson College’s new executive conference centre.

Event Sponsors: ARM | Gold Sponsors: UtilityWise | Silver Sponsors: Cambridge Consultants; NERA

Conference Outline from Gavin Jones, Chair 2017

“2017 feels like a year in which major change in smart energy in the UK seem close.

“Yet what that change is, is unclear.

“We’ll see:

  • the smart meter rollout starting, bringing smart technology into homes across the country;
  • possible booms in the development of storage, reducing costs of renewables technology;
  • the first subsidy-free bid for provision of offshore wind in Germany;
  • and National Grid and Google working on the use of artificial intelligence in energy.

“On the other hand we have the following combination of uncertainties:

  • our future access to international energy;
  • the impact of political attempts to fix the failures of our energy market;
  • the growing impact on communities and business of living the most expensive energy in the developed world;
  • and future changes in how our electricity system will be managed.

“The conference centres on perfect area for fascinating conversations!”

Dr Justin Hayward, Director of C4IR added: “Just 5 weeks to go to this event and we are very excited! We have a VC & ARM-led innovation pitching session on 20th business conference and a high quality delve into basics, technologies, markets and innovation on 19th in the briefing day.”

Book fast (book with event hotel) | Book medium pace with more info | All C4IR events ticket shop | SGCP17 Event Brochure| Or call C4IR on 07720 047 402 to book or discuss event.

Maya Stancheva
Front of House, C4IR

To read more information about C4IR Global Series Events, click here.

Investment in Cambridge after ARM Holdings plc

For £24.3 billion, ARM, a Cambridge-based chip design company, has been sold to SoftBank, a Japanese conglomerate, which has vowed to double the staff in ARM in five years among other specified strategies.

Within this activity, at least £380 million was returned to local ARM employees in the period from September 19 – 24 2016. These monies have hit accounts.

As suggested by Emily Mackay, a local fintech and analysis entrepreneur, this is likely to be reinvested to some extent in products and services locally, and another part of it may be invested in early stage through larger listed companies and other assets locally and elsewhere.

This is certainly my case, having been an investor in ARM. I will be spending the unexpected returns mainly locally and partly investing locally. I have already begun to invest not only in listed companies but also in a high local growth scale-up that has been raising millions through crowdfunding.

The 42% premium might have been a much higher premium, given the huge potential of the relevant markets. It appears that the relevant senior ARM staff did not negotiate too hard. I was looking to invest in IoT and ARM for the longer run, and with a much higher upside in that longer run. ARM investors lost part of that upside with this deal.

Leaving that aside, as an investor up that event, and one who would like to continue to invest, I am faced with what to do with the monies returned as they merge with my overall portfolio of assets.

I was a Deutsche Bank securities analyst in the 1990s prior to returning to Cambridge to do a Judge MBA in 2000. There, I had responsibilities to understand and practice portfolio (optimisation) theory, especially around international government bonds and money markets. I am also conscious of the value investing approach of Warren Buffett and have read his books and some of the very old citations within it, such as the classic “Stock Operator” books.

These two ideas somewhat push against each other.

On the one hand, portfolio theory tells us that we should spread out our assets into holdings that are as uncorrelated as possible: diversification. We then are able to use the theory to optimise the balance of the portfolio so that it offers the highest possible return for a given risk level.

On the other hand, Warren Buffett prefers to keep a small number of investment assets which he has gotten to know and has understood and has perhaps been able to establish that they are “undervalued” as measured say against “book value” or some other financial ratio. He will believe in the business model and invest at higher levels than perhaps standard portfolio theory might recommend. He is a risk taker. Well, it worked: after of course many decades, this value investor is in the handful of richest people in the world.

In thinking of diversification, one can go to different asset classes, such as property, equities (stocks in companies), fixed income (bonds), commodities (e.g. gold), alternative finance (lending). One can do all this in different currencies and geographies around the world. There may be influences from taxation policy when one is balancing the portfolio. Within stocks, there are listed public companies (e.g. FTSE 100, AIM listed) right down to small unlisted private companies taking angel and VC investment. Investment can be for a decade or more, or just for a few days.

Another asset class is one’s own business or income potential at work: “human capital”. One needs to balance potential at work with what can be achieved through focus on investments. This is entirely personal and depends on many factors. Normally, that business is a dominant factor.

Now, brainstorming: what are the possible asset classes that might be interesting now. I’ve given some of them as examples above.

Technology.

Some hot and potentially “exponential” sectors, and ones which have representations in Cambridge, are:

  • IOT, IIOT
  • wireless communications
  • healthcare, healthcare services, research tools for academics
  • wearables for mental health and health monitoring etc
  • smart factories
  • payment technologies & fintech
  • software for all the above
  • software for network visualisation
  • 2d & nanomaterials
  • digital printing and 3d printing

We can expect a premium for all classes of company in these areas, but they can still grow and be great investments. ARM of course was one such company. What is the next ARM in Cambridge in terms of growth and development?

P2P Lending: this is a burgeoning, lower risk, lower volatility, lower downside type of investment class than stocks.

Crowdfunding: A recent study showed that the class as a whole has been providing a 14.4% ROI for investors. This is actually comparable with some of the P2P lending returns but at higher risk. If willing to invest in several examples that are uncorrelated, and work with an uncertain medium to long run exit, with very high potential upside (an advantage over P2P) if a “unicorn” is found, then this is an exciting class of assets for part of the portfolio.

Indian equities: this developing country is set to grow among the fastest in the world for the foreseeable future. There are funds for this available from the UK. This would be high risk if investing for only a year or two.

Property in Cambridge has been a great investment – the market has risen on average at just under 6% CAGR for the last 25 years.

The equity value in the property can also supplement funds to invest – if you have the risk-appetite for that. You are likely to be paying “secured loan” rates well under 5% with the bank or building society. You can of course obtain rates from 8% to above 10% in P2P lending (but yes, you cannot defer tax as in shares until sale. You must pay tax each year on gains, even if extracting the monies for the tax bill goes against the investment idea). So there is possible arbitrage, but with risks, of course.

Sometimes investors are thought of as not helping society. Well, your investments are clearly helping people pay less interest and achieve their dreams in P2P lending. Your investments are creating improved properties for you and others to live in. Your investments are enabling entrepreneurs and their teams to have a job and the chance to build great products and services that we all can then enjoy and improve our lives with…in principle!

More investment when you are very successful does not yield less of the good things I’ve just mentioned. And the more you have the more you will deploy effectively to others in society unless you put most of the funds under a mattress.

One of the surprising statistics for Cambridge is that its “Cambridge Index”, created and monitored by the local investment bank N W Brown Group, shows that those Cambridge companies have greatly outperformed the AIM index as a whole. In fact, the Cambridge Index has grown at a rate of over 18% CAGR for two decades, while the AIM index as a whole has languished.

There are many great technology companies in the Cambridge cluster ranging from those wanting angel investment, to those maturing into venture capital and post-angel crowdfunding etc, to those smaller listed growth companies to public companies like Abcam that have reached over £1.6 billion in market valuation and are growing at a faster-than-their-market rate. Are such companies in Cambridge as Abcam, or other generally unknown scaleable tech companies, to emulate the success of ARM?

I look forward to the investment conversations!

Disclaimer: The author was a certified & regulated Securities and Futures Analyst with the FSA (now the FCA) in the 1990s but is not registered to give advice and this blog and all other comments by the author are not investment advice either generally or for any specific security or general class of assets.

Top 10 Reasons to Attend Cambridge Graphene Days 2015 | MasterClass, Press Event & Business Conference | Tours of New Labs | Expo of Tech – 5-6 November

Home | Bookings

For pricing see further down the page. Please email Maya mstancheva@cir-strategy.com for a detailed brochure or booking or call +44 1223 303500.

1. There is a top level master class on 5 November for corporate executives led by a world-class coach & assisted by subject-matter industry experts.

2. Followed by a media event with the Vice Chancellor of Cambridge University and then an exclusive private roundtable dinner at

3. the beautiful, ancient King’s College, Cambridge University. 

4. Topics for the entire masterclass and business conference are market-led,

5. which means that past delegates have requested them and

6. CIR is asking all speakers to choose one of the topics rather than taking the shotgun “call for papers” approach with them,

7. So that uniquely to date, buyers (corporates & brand owners) will be there with tech suppliers

8. At the showcase throughout day, the business conference on 6 November all day at the New Cambridge Graphene Centre Building

9. 12-16 talks throughout the day updating you on topics you wanted

10. CIR has run high quality events since 2002, always listening and learning, increasingly market-demand led.

There will be a focus on strategic use-case value-proposition development, innovation & strategic products such as sensors & devices, electronics, consumer goods, industrial products.

Pricing

(5 Nov) Exclusive invite-only master class day with fine private dinner at King’s: £895 pv (Max attendees 24) (Corporate or C-level Execs are invited)

(First Conference ever at New Cambridge Graphene Building) Business conference day with showcase:  £245 pv (concessions). £295 pv (standard value price). Concessions: (under 4 staff tech suppliers, f-t academics, f-t investors,  not consultants or public sector).  (Max attendees 200)

Price for both days is the the sum of the above prices, £1,140 for pass to all events including King’s dinner.

We (CIR Team Justin, Jacqueline, Maya & Nick and supporters Cambridge Graphene Centre and Media Partners Nanopro, Graphene Tracker, Graphene Info, Pan European Networks, Horizon2020, IOM3.org, BREC, AzoNano, KTN and Graphene SIG very much look forward to greeting you at this unique market developing & accelerating event.

http://www.hvm-uk.com/graphene2015

Please email Maya mstancheva@cir-strategy.com for a detailed brochure or booking or call +44 1223 303500.

 

The Value of the Smart Systems Summit 2014 1-2 October London IoD

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This is a special summit culminating 7 years of smart systems conferences within various segments

We form media partnerships with those who can extend our reach further

We are a strategy consultancy rather than an event organiser following instructions

We specialise in market research, using contact referrals and social media to obtain top speakers year after year

The value is in the bringing together of industry leaders beyond your own lists, with government and other academic groups

Our databases are large, from 12 years of conferences with 3,200 delegates

Network with industry innovators to create and develop critical new business collaborations and to exchange knowledge

Minimize risk by keeping up with technology developments – where is the industry going

Bring in cross-over engineering situations that might lend valuable ideas to work already being done

The spice of high level events in the capital, a greater chance of serendipity in networking

We’re bringing together top people from no fewer than 21 conferences in Cambridge and Oxford on these topics – so it’ll be a unique group, not the same people

If communications are important to you, this will be a well-covered conference in social media and in print

It will quickly generate a legacy website and slides for the site Slideshare, which are looked at by delegates and referred to others over time, something which builds over a long period

Gain industry recognition for yourself and your company through speaking, roundtable participation

For buyers – what new systems, products and services are there to buy?

It’s a prestigious venue – one of the best in the UK

It’s in a central location easy to reach from all directions –  In the capital, in exciting West London, near parliament.

Book now via this link

Top 12 Reasons to attend Smart Grids & Cleanpower 2014 Cambridge

Links:  Conference Home | Brochure | Book now | Info |Speakers & Synopses

Top 12 Reasons to Attend SGCP14

1. See and mingle with 40 top speakers
2. Influence the debate – audience reverses & open panels
3. Build your network – new and old partners & clients
4. Pleasant dinner roundtable in Cambridge with decision makers and influencers
5. Help innovators at smaller and large companies
6. Debate fracking rationally
7. Debate energy pricing & market structure
8. Debate the energy vs internet cultural challenges
9. Help increase grid resilience
10. Learn all about smart grids and energy
11. Get latest updates in markets
12. Challenge your assumptions
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AGENDA – DAY 1 – EXECUTIVE BRIEFING MASTERCLASS DAY JUNE 3
10:15 – 11:00 Session 1: Introduction Smart Grids & Energy – led by Gavin Jones, Business Development Director, ElectraLink
10:15 Introduction to Day 1
10:20 Definitions
10:30 Basics
10:40 Trends and Drivers
10:50 Review & discussion

Coffee break

11:15 – 13:00 Session 2: Technology led by Dr Andy Stanford Clark, CTO Smart Energy, IBM
11:15 Demand Side Management (DSM) – the key to the smart grid
11:30 Case studies
11:40 Smart Meters & AMI | Interoperability
12:00 Distributed generation – Alan South, Commercial Director, Solar Century
12:30 Renewables and storage, markets and intermittency – Graham Ford, Mansion Partners
Review

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch networking & meetings

14:00 – 16:00 Session 3 Markets – led by Mike Wilks, Director Smart Energy, Poyry
14:00 Social & Innovation Cartography in grids and energy
Key players – visions, strategies and what they are doing
Porter’s Market Characteristics & Forecasts
14:45 Demand Response Economics – Anneesha Patten, Poyry
15:00 Big Data, Data sharing & privacy – Gavin Jones, Business Development Director ElectraLink
15:20 Monetisation of energy management systems – Pilgrim Beart, Founder AlertMe & 1248.io
15:40 The Industrial Internet – Dr Amyas Philips
Review

16:05 Tea break

16:30 – 17:30 Session 4 Innovation – led by Rob McNamara, Founder, Smart Grids GB
The status quo & change challenges
The value & funding of innovation – Steve Dawson, VP Consulting, Sentec
17:10 Discussion
Summary of Day

19:00 – 21:15 Roundtable dinner at King’s College, Cambridge

AGENDA – DAY 2 – SMART GRIDS 4 JUNE
Session 1 Smart Grids & Collected Intelligence
10:00 Dr Justin Hayward, Director, Cambridge Investment Research, Introduction
10:05 Gavin Jones, Business Development Director, ElectraLink, Chairman’s Opener
10:10 Rob McNamara, Founder, Smart Grids GB, The Value of a Smart Grid to Great Britain
10:20 Audience Collected intelligence, Comments & questions for day speakers and panellists from audience – one minute each
10:50 Stephen Cunningham, CEO, UK, Ireland & Nordic, Landis & Gyr, Keynote: Managing Energy Better – The landscape for smart grid
11:10 Panel with speakers and chair

Morning coffee & showcase of products and services

Session 2 Connected Intelligence: servers, networks, meters, fast data analytics & grids
Dr Sean Cochrane, Director Cyan Technology A connected energy network through metering and lighting
Dr Paul Wright, CCM National Physical Laboratory Smart grid measurement
John Di Stasio, CEO Sacramento Municipal Utility Department (SMUD) Jt Keynote: Smart grid intelligence and risk, Smart grid intelligence and risk
Martin Dunlea, Global Industries Lead, Utilities, Oracle, Jt Keynote: Fast Data, Actionable Data
Panel with Peter Drake, Managing Director, Intelligent Networks

Lunch networking & exhibition of products & services

Session 3 Smart Cities & Infrastructure: real systems solutions at scale | the industrial internet
Michael Clark, Programme Director – Low Carbon London UK Power Networks, A Smart Grid for London
Rich Hampshire, Principal Consultant CGI, End-to-end smart grid & consumer engagement
Philip Burr, Director of Product Marketing Arkessa, Case study: an M2M platforms for IoT Solutions
Chris Wright, CTO, Moixa Technology, Smart Direct Current
Dr Andy Stanford Clark, CTO Smart Energy, IBM, Keynote: Smarter planet works
Panel with Tony Rooke, Sustainable Strategy Director; Smart Cities & Innovation, Infosys

Coffee networking & expo of products & services

Session 4 Plenary Policy debate grids and energy: innovators | funding | regulation & reforms
Dora Guzeleva, Head of Network Policy Ofgem, How regulation can be a win-win for stakeholders
Ian Ellerington, Head of Innovation, DECC, The key role of innovators in changing the energy industry
Steve Dawson, VP / Dr Mark England, EVP Smart Grid, Sentec, Routes to market for energy innovators
Pilgrim Beart, Founder, AlertMe, Keynote: UK energy management innovation in global markets
Panel with Chairman – followed by Chairmen’s summaries

Drinks networking

AGENDA – DAY 2 – CLEANPOWER CONFERENCE 4 JUNESession 1 The Energy Trilemma: Resilience | Affordability | Targets & transition technologies
10:00 Mike McCreary, Director, Cambridge Investment Research, Introduction
10:05 Jeremy Nicholson, Senior Advisor, EEF, Energy Intensive Users Group, Chairman’s Opener
10:10 Peter Sharratt, Director – Sustainability Services, SBP (spin out Deloitte), Guiding future investments for property, infrastructure & sustainability needs
10:20 Audience Collected intelligence, Comments & questions for day speakers and panellists from audience – one minute each
10:50 Dr Bernard J Bulkin, NED, Ludgate Investments (former Chief Scientist BP) & Cambridge Univ., Keynote: The Energy Trilemma
11:10 Panel with speakers and chair

Morning coffee & showcase of products and services

Session 2 Fracking in Focus
Professor Andy Woods, Lead Scientist, CU BPI, Science & the Risks and rewards of fracturing for shale gas
Marieke Beckmann, Research Lead National Physical Laboratory, CCM, Emissions measurement in fracking
Dr Tony Smith, Technical Director SLR Consulting Separating Myth from reality – Fracking and the social licence
Joel Price, COO San Leon Energy, Experiences of shale development in the EU
Michael Bradshaw – Professor of Global Energy Warwick University Keynote: The impact of the US shale gas revolution on UK gas security
Panel with moderator Professor Woods CU BP Institute

Lunch networking & exhibition of products & services

Session 3 Energy markets: competition & pricing
Mike Wilks, Director Smart Energy Poyry, Energy market structure: could do better?
Hen Cooke & Emilia Melville Buro Happold, TSB-funded case study: domestic demand response & smart grids
Doug Stewart, CEO Green Energy UK, The role of alternative suppliers of energy
Ashleye Gunn, Programme Director Which? , Consumer policy and market solutions
Neil Pennington, Programme Director: Smart, rwe nPower, Keynote: Vertical integration, other structures and the real effects on energy supply prices
Panel with chairman

Coffee networking & expo of products & services

Session 4 Plenary Policy debate grids and energy: innovators | funding | regulation & reforms
Dora Guzeleva, Head of Network Policy Ofgem, How regulation can be a win-win for stakeholders
Ian Ellerington, Head of Innovation, DECC, The key role of innovators in changing the energy industry
Steve Dawson, VP / Dr Mark England, EVP Smart Grid, Sentec, Routes to market for energy innovators
Pilgrim Beart, Founder, AlertMe, Keynote: UK energy management innovation in global markets
Panel with Chairman – followed by Chairmen’s summaries

Drinks networking

VENUES
Murray Edwards College, Buckingham House Conference Centre, Cambridge, England, CB3 0DR – state-of-art tiered auditorium, excellent, light networking & exhibition spaces, meeting areas, great food, plentiful coffee. CIR invites you to become one of the best business delegates in the world, nurturing your business development and personal and corporate success by leaning into the value network & having fun at the same time. And the Roundtable Dinner is at King’s College, Cambridge. It doesn’t get better than that!

My take on ARM Holdings plc

ARM is growing up and has considerable brand value to add on as it matures, on top of the value it adds as it grows by revenues and profit.

The April 2014 multiples were fairly high, then there was a correction of 12.5% below 5 year trend line.

But my target for ARM’s share price in 4 year’s time is £25-£30+, hitting these levels in at least one pre-emptive spurt before that time, given the typical volatility of the price.

Why, in summary?

I assume conditions remaining roughly the same in the longer run in terms of attitudes to financial ratios. The company will likely grow at least 20% a year given the market outlook for the current and new areas it sells into. On top of all that, it will add intangible value like better-known global electronics and ICT brands have done (see E&T Magazine April 2014 for brand value increases in electronics and IT). This intangible brand value will affect the share price directly, but may also help maintain or increase royalty and licensing fee rates that ARM can command.

Top 6 reasons:

ARM…
1. has a beautiful business model involving tech licensing and royalties in high barrier, deep tech.
2. is yet fully to exploit its brand and go confidently shoulder to shoulder with the big guys who have the big, rapidly growing brand values in electronics and ICT. But it is beginning to do this through market diversification, corporate marketing, supply chain management and internal cultural development: remember Apple was its first customer!
3. has a beautiful strategy to push further into the markets it currently dominates (smartphones, which Analysts at IDC say is growing at 28.9% p.a.) – because those markets are still growing and the number of chips per phone is increasing while the phones get priced cheaper for global emerging markets.
4. is consistently growing itself on average at 15-20% a year, and has been for at least 4 years.
5. new markets are amazing, pretty much exponential, such as IoT (MCUs, radio, sensors, embedded) and ARM is better placed than anyone to exploit them and benefit from their general take-up.
6. any competitors that threaten are more likely to drive up the ARM share price if they succeed, as they might for a time be in a position to buy ARM, but it more likely that ARM will grow and become a feisty global brand, an icon of the knowledge economy in the next decade.
7. ARM’s price rose an order of magnitude in the past 5 years; these targets represent a considerable slow down in those timescales.
8. is investing not only in great R&D staff, but is also expanding its global marketing campaigns: innovation AND marketing.

So I am not moved by this little bump has happened because of a regrade by an investment bank and by a general forum about tech share levels. They bear no resemblance to 1999 in absolute financial ratio terms; and ARM bears no resemblance to a revenueless, USP-less dotcom.

In the big picture, you have a superb business, and the medium-term is looking excellent.

About CIR

Cambridge Investment Research (CIR Strategy) is an independent consultancy trading since 2002. Its Company Director, Justin Hayward MMath MBA PhD is invested in ARM. Justin Hayward, 45, is a former Hawking PhD student (early 90s) and a former Deutsche Bank quant relative value analyst (late 90s).

This note is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security.

Once upon a time, there was an old power grid…

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Once upon a time, there was an old power grid.
Every day, the grid creaked under more strain and got older, less reliable and more stretched.
One day, people said – we want more renewable power on a grid that enables demand response so it doesn’t fall over, and wherein energy is affordable for consumers. This set of requirements caused even more problems. They then said: but we can fix this. We can make it better, more robust, affordable, smarter and cleaner.
Because of that, people who understand how they might improve things for this complex problem got together in conferences, briefings and workshops.
Because of that – they talked through issues and solutions and prioritised the plans for getting there safely.
Until finally, the Smart Grid became a reality!!!
6th Smart Grids & Cleanpower 2014
An excellent 2-day conference in Cambridge 3-4 June. The first day is an executive briefing day with experts giving in-depth talks, with private meetings, drinks, and culminating in a dinner roundtable at King’s College Cambridge.
The second day is a two-stream business conference with short talks and long panels, amid great speakers and businesspeople and entrepreneurs. One stream on smart grids and the other on smart energy, including fracking and energy trilemma sessions.
Don’t miss out!