Probability as logic for decisionmaking

Applications of Bayesian decision logic in business

Reading time: 5 minutes scan and reflect

This letter, the third in the series, and a shorter one(!) will focus on applications in business, generalising out from the examples given in the previous letter.

The following is a short list, in alphabetical order, of applications of the approach described in my letters:

  • Acceptance testing for HVM products and services
  • A/B Testing – Is A more desirable/higher value than B?
    • Cricket, baseball: sports analysis
    • Customer arrival and resources management
    • Customer lifetime and value
  • Economics and econometrics
  • Environmental regulation fulfilment, controls
  • Game theory strategies
  • Geopolitics
  • Human resources selection/hire/no-hire decisionmaking
  • Healthcare: Medical diagnosis, disease/infection risk, vaccination and course of action
  • Healthcare: therapeutics: to treat or not to treat
  • Cancer prognosis
  • ‘Darwin’s data’
  • Justice, jurisprudence, case proposition proof or denial via weights of evidence
  • Law, generally
  • Marketing focus decisionmaking
  • Military applications: strategy, defence systems, offence, purchasing, logistics, war/peace games
  • Mineral resource prospecting and archeology
  • Negotiation
  • Preference ranking and prioritisation in logic
  • Product widget improves product system: ‘with or without’?
  • Political research
  • Policy analysis
  • Pricing strategy
  • Profitability (utility) of options
  • Psychometrics
  • Quality control
  • Quantifying confirmation via evidence
  • Strategy or tactical decision logic
  • Supply chain management and logistics
  • Understanding biases in intuition (say, 10 option scores 1-10, e.g. trusted, observed average is 7, how do we assign the probabilities of each score 1-10, adding the least info?)
  • Verification (confirmation or infirmation)
  • Technical diplomacy
  • Venture Capital, valuation estimation for investment choices
  • Weather, forecasting and severity

If you are in any of the areas above or in things apparently parallel, and might like to try decisionmaking using extended probability logic, please let me know! It’d great to catch up. Please send an email, to the author of this blog, via: ‘teiresaas’ which is at ‘cantab’ dot ‘net’

CIR > Bayes Task Group > Letter 3 (of 3)